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The Impacts of Passing Climate Change Tipping Points: A CGE assessment for Europe of rapid sea-level rise

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  • Ciscar, Juan Carlos
  • Nicholls, Robert
  • Pycroft, Jonathan

Abstract

The overall impact of sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the reasons of concern related to climate change. SLR could exceed one metre by the end of the century, which would have serious direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline (e.g. tourist resorts, industries such as refineries, and harbours), and indirect impacts further inland. This article estimates the potential impact of SLR on the world economy. The study takes account of damage estimates for land loss, migration and sea floods taken from the DIVA model. The overall general equilibrium economic effects are estimated used the GEM-E3 model. Different levels of SLR are considered. Our study compares three main SLR scenarios. The first, A1B, is in line with the climate scenario (0.6 metres rise by 2100), the second, ‘Rahmstorf’, with post-IPCC research suggesting higher SLR (1.4 metres rise by 2100) and lastly a ‘2 metres’ SLR by 2100. The damages for the whole EU rise from 0.15% of welfare (A1B scenario) to 0.9% (‘Rahmstorf’) to 1.76% (‘2 metres’). Naturally, the losses for specific countries vary greatly. The study concludes that there is a significant risk of economic damage of these magnitudes, which are somewhat higher than earlier studies. This is due to a wider range of damage impacts being considered. Furthermore, the study notes that further damages beyond those included are possible, such as damages to the water table, to the coastal ecosystem and indirect effects on economic value. As such even these higher damage estimates can be considered conservative figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciscar, Juan Carlos & Nicholls, Robert & Pycroft, Jonathan, 2012. "The Impacts of Passing Climate Change Tipping Points: A CGE assessment for Europe of rapid sea-level rise," Conference papers 332284, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332284
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Kopp & Frederik J. Simons & Jerry X. Mitrovica & Adam C. Maloof & Michael Oppenheimer, 2009. "Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7275), pages 863-867, December.
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