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Climate Change and the Future of Global Agriculture

Author

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  • Medvedev, Denis
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
  • Beghin, John

Abstract

Many factors will shape global agriculture looking ahead. On the food demand side the world is likely to witness a slowing of population growth, and in some regions absolute decline, but this may be partially offset by rising incomes and a shift in food demand towards meat and dairy and fruits and vegetables. The emergence of biofuels has increased the demand for agricultural commodities and linked these markets to fossil energy markets, inducing food‐bio‐energy trade‐offs whose long‐term consequences are not yet fully delineated. On the supply side productivity gains have been in decline over the last decade and production may be limited by land and water availability. Could this mean the end of the trend of a relative decline in agricultural prices? How will these various trends play at a country and regional scale? Will countries facing increasing reliance on imports implement policies to insure some level of ‘food security’? This paper will illustrate the impacts of various different assumptions linked to both the demand and supply side using the World Bank’s ENVISAGE dynamic global applied general equilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Beghin, John, 2009. "Climate Change and the Future of Global Agriculture," Conference papers 331828, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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