IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/331268.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Between Liberalization and Protection: Four Long-term Scenarios for Trade, Poverty and the Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Eickhout, B.
  • Meijl, H. van
  • Tabeau, A.
  • Zeijts, H. van

Abstract

The impact of globalization on poverty and the environment was a central issue during the Doha development round table and the mass demonstrations on the streets of Cancun. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade regimes, poverty and the environment given two key uncertainties. First, a world where Doha succeeds and globalization proceeds versus a world that moves to regionalism with a stronger orientation toward bilateral and regional trade agreements. Secondly, a world that focuses on economic incentives and economic growth and a limited role for the government versus a world where public and private institutions value also environment and ecology. In our analyses we quantify the impact of trade liberalization on developing countries and the environment. We found that liberalization leads to economic benefits. The benefits are modest in terms of GDP and unequally distributed among countries. Developing countries gain relatively the most. However, between 70 and 85 per cent of the benefits for developing countries is the result of their own reform policies in agriculture. South-South trade liberalization is key to the “development” part of this round. Liberalization can be helpful in gaining welfare; however uncoordinated liberalization can lead to unbearable pressures on the environment. In the liberalizing scenarios most of these shifts occur, indicating that liberalization should be performed with care. Trade liberalization will necessary have environmental consequences, which might be positive or negative for a region. What seems crucial is that environmental and trade agreements and policies must be sufficiently integrated or coordinated, to assure that they work together to improve the environment and attain the benefits of free trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickhout, B. & Meijl, H. van & Tabeau, A. & Zeijts, H. van, 2004. "Between Liberalization and Protection: Four Long-term Scenarios for Trade, Poverty and the Environment," Conference papers 331268, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331268/files/1915.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
    2. Westcott, Paul C. & Young, C. Edwin & Price, J. Michael, 2002. "The 2002 Farm Act: Provisions And Implications For Commodity Markets," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33745, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Gibson, Paul R. & Wainio, John & Whitley, Daniel B. & Bohman, Mary, 2001. "Profiles Of Tariffs In Global Agricultural Markets," Agricultural Economic Reports 34055, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. C. F. Bach & S. E. Frandsen & H. G. Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural and Economy‐Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 162-180, May.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antimiani, Alessandro & Conforti, Piero & Salvatici, Luca, 2005. "Alternative Market Access Scenarios in the Agriculture Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23.
    2. Binfield, Julian & Meyers, William & Westhoff, Patrick, 2005. "Modelling CAP Reform: Consensus or Conflict?," Conference papers 331431, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2010. "Promoting Global Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction," Conference papers 331944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Hanson, Kenneth & Somwaru, Agapi, 2003. "Distributional Effects of U.S. Farm Commodity Programs: Accounting for Farm and Non-Farm Households," Conference papers 331120, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    6. Yang, Anton, 2021. "Structural Estimation of a Gravity Model of Trade with the Constant-Difference-of-Elasticities," Conference papers 333297, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    8. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    9. Ole Boysen, 2019. "When does specification or aggregation across consumers matter for economic impact analysis models? An investigation into demand systems," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 137-172, January.
    10. Aguiar, Angel & Corong, Erwin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2020. "The GTAP Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) Model: Version 1.0," Conference papers 333133, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Kriengsak CHAREONWONGSAK, 2010. "Impact Assessment of Thailand’s Promotion of Strategic Export Industries: A Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) Approach," EcoMod2004 330600037, EcoMod.
    12. Oksana Harbuzyuk & Stefan Lutz, 2008. "Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 221-238, September.
    13. Vlontzos, G. & Pardalos, P.M., 2017. "Assess and prognosticate green house gas emissions from agricultural production of EU countries, by implementing, DEA Window analysis and artificial neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 155-162.
    14. Yves Y. Dronne & Patrice Gautier & Alexandre Gohin & Fabrice Levert, 2003. "OLEOSIM : modélisation du marché mondial des oléagineux," Working Papers hal-02827533, HAL.
    15. Hess, Sebastian & Surry, Yves R., 2011. "The CDET Profit Function: Could it generate a Parsimonious Agricultural Sector Model?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114539, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Antimiani, Alessandro & Finizia, A. & Henke, Roberto & Manfredi, G. & Merciai, S., 2008. "The impact of the reform of the milk quota regime on the Italian dairy sector," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43658, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Preckel, Paul V. & Cranfield, John A.L. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2005. "Implicit Additive Preferences: A Further Generalization Of The Ces," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19373, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Luca Salvatici, 2005. "Agricultural trade restrictiveness in the European Union and the United States," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 479-490, November.
    19. Francesco Bosello & Lorenza Campagnolo & Raffaello Cervigni & Fabio Eboli, 2018. "Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(4), pages 787-810, April.
    20. Chris Jensen-Butler & Bjarne Madsen, 2006. "The General Interregional Price Model," ERSA conference papers ersa06p183, European Regional Science Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.