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Estimating the effects of EU enlargement, WTO accession and formation of FTA with EU or CIS on Russian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Alekseev, Alexander
  • Sokolov, Denis
  • Tourdyeva, Natalia
  • Yudaeva, Ksenia

Abstract

We estimate effects of Russia’s trade policy options on the production, welfare and trade flows. The computable general equilibrium model is used in the analysis. We show that Russia looses in the case of EU enlargement unless non-tariff barriers in the accession countries are changed to the level of the EU. In all other trade arrangements – WTO accession, formation of Russia-EU FTA, and formation of a FTA between Russia and other CIS countries Russia improves its welfare. This seems to be the first paper, which includes data on CIS countries other than Russia. We show that CIS countries experience substantial gains from formation of a FTA with Russia. Another novelty of this paper is an attempt to estimate non-tariff barriers to trade in the FSU region, and to accommodate the effect of their changes in the model. Inclusion of non-tariff barriers often changes the results dramatically, suggesting that CGE literature should pay more attention to incorporating such barriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alekseev, Alexander & Sokolov, Denis & Tourdyeva, Natalia & Yudaeva, Ksenia, 2004. "Estimating the effects of EU enlargement, WTO accession and formation of FTA with EU or CIS on Russian economy," Conference papers 331218, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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