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Will Special Agricultural Safeguards Advance or Retard LDC Growth and Welfare? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Somwaru, Agapi
  • Skully, David

Abstract

In the WTO Doha negotiations several developing countries have proposed special safeguards mechanisms [SSMs] for sensitive agricultural commodities. This study examines the potential magnitude and distribution of the welfare from allowing developing countries to establish [SSMs] for grains and oilseeds. It employs an inter-temporal general equilibrium model including 13 countries/regions and 7 commodity groups, based GTAP 5.2 database, to simulate the dynamic effects of imposing SSMs. The simulations indicate that allowing developing country SSMs for grains and oilseeds reduces the welfare gains of full agricultural liberalization, but the reduction in welfare is relatively modest: about 99% of the welfare gain of full liberalization is realized with SSM—that is, share of welfare gain foregone is about 1%. The relative welfare foregone is greatest for developing countries, and least for developed countries. Among developing regions, Asian countries (excluding China) forego the greatest relative welfare gain.

Suggested Citation

  • Somwaru, Agapi & Skully, David, 2003. "Will Special Agricultural Safeguards Advance or Retard LDC Growth and Welfare? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331147, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warwick J. McKibbin & K. K. Tang, 2000. "Trade and Financial Reform in China: Impacts on the World Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 979-1003, August.
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    7. Thomas W. Hertel & Terrie Walmsley & Ken Itakura, 2005. "Dynamic Effects Of The "New Age" Free Trade Agreement Between Japan And Singapore," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Philippa Dee & Michael Ferrantino (ed.), Quantitative Methods For Assessing The Effects Of Non-Tariff Measures And Trade Facilitation, chapter 18, pages 483-523, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert, 2005. "Special Agricultural Safeguards: Virtual Benefits and Real Costs—Lessons for the Doha Round," IMF Working Papers 2005/131, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Grant, Jason H. & Meilke, Karl D., 2005. "The WTO Special Safeguard Mechanism: A Case Study of Wheat," Working Papers 24158, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    3. Grant, Jason H. & Meilke, Karl D., 2009. "Triggers, Remedies, and Tariff Cuts: Assessing the Impact of a Special Safeguard Mechanism for Developing Countries," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, May.
    4. Countryman, Amanda & Ufer, Danielle, 2016. "Potential Poverty Effects of the Special Safeguard Mechanism: the Case of Wheat," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236023, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Grant, Jason H. & Meilke, Karl D., 2004. "Import Safeguards: Protectionist Measures Or A Liberalization Strategy?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20236, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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