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Decadal Climate Variability: Economic Implications In Agriculture And Water In The Missouri River Basin

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  • Fernandez, Mario Andres

Abstract

Economic research on decadal climate variability (DCV) is scarce. DCV refers to ocean-related climate influences of duration from seven to twenty years. The DCV phenomena and their phases are associated with variations in crop and water yields. This paper examines the value of DCV information in the Missouri river basin using a mathematical programming model. The analysis shows the value of a perfect forecast is about 5.2 billion dollars, though 86% of this value can be obtained by a less perfect forecast based on already available data. Results show differential responses in major crops acreage and water usage.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez, Mario Andres, 2013. "Decadal Climate Variability: Economic Implications In Agriculture And Water In The Missouri River Basin," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160199, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nzar13:160199
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.160199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long‐Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, July.
    5. Daniel Fajardo & Bruce A. McCarl & Robert L. Thompson, 1981. "A Multicommodity Analysis of Trade Policy Effects: The Case of Nicaraguan Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 23-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Andres Fernandez & Pei Huang & Bruce McCarl & Vikram Mehta, 2016. "Value of decadal climate variability information for agriculture in the Missouri River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 517-533, December.
    2. Huang, Pei & McCarl, Bruce A., 2014. "Estimating Decadal Climate Variability Effects on Crop Yields: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169828, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use;
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