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Optimal Testing Strategies For Genetically Modified Wheat

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson, William W.
  • Jabs, Eric J.
  • Dahl, Bruce L.

Abstract

A stochastic optimization model was developed to determine optimal testing strategies, costs, and risks of a dual marketing system. The model chooses the testing strategy (application, intensity, and tolerance) that maximizes utility (minimizes disutility) of additional system costs due to testing and quality loss and allows simulation of the risk premium required to induce grain handlers to undertake a dual marketing system versus a Non-GM system. Cost elements including those related to testing, quality loss, and a risk premium were estimated for a model representing a grain export chain. Uncertainties were incorporated and include test accuracy, risk of adventitious commingling throughout, and variety declaration. Sensitivities were performed for effects of variety risks, penalty differentials, re-elevation discounts, import tolerances, variety declaration, risk aversion, GM adoption, and domestic end-user.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson, William W. & Jabs, Eric J. & Dahl, Bruce L., 2003. "Optimal Testing Strategies For Genetically Modified Wheat," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23605, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:nddaae:23605
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.23605
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/23605/files/aer520.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. William W. Wilson & Xavier Henry & Bruce L. Dahl, 2008. "Costs and risks of conforming to EU traceability requirements: the case of hard red spring wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 85-101.
    2. William W. Wilson & Bruce Dahl, 2006. "Costs and Risks of Segregating GM Wheat in Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(3), pages 341-359, September.

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