IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ncrone/18960.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

USDA Production Forecasts for Pork, Beef, and Broilers: A Further Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Sanders, Dwight R.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.

Abstract

This paper examines USDA one-step ahead forecasts of quarterly beef, pork, and poultry production. The forecasts are evaluated based on traditional criteria for optimality-efficiency and unbiasedness-as well as their performance versus an univariate time series model. The results suggest that the USDA forecasts are unbiased; however, they are generally not efficient. That is, they do not fully incorporate the information contained in past forecasts. Moreover, the USDA predictions do not encompass all the information contained in forecasts generated by simple time series models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2001. "USDA Production Forecasts for Pork, Beef, and Broilers: A Further Evaluation," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18960, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrone:18960
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/18960/files/cp01sa01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.18960?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey B. Mills & Ted C. Schroeder, 2004. "Are cattle on feed report revisions random and does industry anticipate them?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 363-374.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ncrone:18960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.