IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/morc11/188122.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change and Agriculture: An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Economy-wide Effects for Turkey1

Author

Listed:
  • Dudu, Hasan
  • Cakmak, Erol H.

Abstract

Effects of climate change in Turkey, which is already a water stressed country, are expected to be significant. The aim of this paper is to quantify the effects of climate change on overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model and a crop water requirement model for the period 2010-2099. Since agriculture is the most important sector that will be affected by climate change, analysis of climate change effects on the overall economy necessitate taking into account backward and forward linkages of agriculture. The CGE model used in this paper models the links between agriculture and other sectors and economic agents at 12 NUTS1 regions level. On the other hand, the crop model is used to translate the results of global climate models to estimate changes in yields and irrigation requirements for the period 2010-2099 at 81 NUTS3 level for 35 crops. The results of the crop model are then introduced to CGE model as climate shocks. The results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not be significant until late 2030s; therefore Turkey has a chance to develop appropriate adaptation policies. However after 2030s, effects of climate change will be significant. Production patterns and relative prices will change drastically. The economic effects will differ among regions. The regions where irrigated agriculture is relatively low, the effects will be milder suggesting a need for putting more emphasis on the region-specific climate change policy design. Agriculture and food production will be the most affected sectors. Increasing irrigation requirements will cause farmers to reduce irrigated production. Combined with decline in yields, this will cause significant deterioration in agricultural production and prices will increase. The loss in household welfare will be significant. Some part of production decline will be compensated by imports, causing an increase in agrofood trade which will cause trade balance to worsen with declining manufacturing exports due to increasing cost of production.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2011. "Climate Change and Agriculture: An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Economy-wide Effects for Turkey1," 2011 Conference: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, December 6-7, 2011, Rabat, Morocco 188122, Moroccan Association of Agricultural Economics (AMAEco).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:morc11:188122
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.188122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/188122/files/Climate%20Change%20and%20Agriculture%20An%20Integrated%20Approach%20%20Turkey%20dudu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.188122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Telli, Çagatay & Voyvoda, Ebru & Yeldan, Erinç, 2008. "Economics of environmental policy in Turkey: A general equilibrium investigation of the economic evaluation of sectoral emission reduction policies for climate change," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 321-340.
    2. A. T. Flegg & C. D. Webber, 2000. "Regional Size, Regional Specialization and the FLQ Formula," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 563-569.
    3. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2013. "Turkey Green Growth Policy Paper : Towards a Greener Economy," World Bank Publications - Reports 16088, The World Bank Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2014. "An integrated analysis of economywide effects of climate change," WIDER Working Paper Series 106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Hasan Dudu & Erol Cakmak, 2014. "An Integrated Analysis of Economywide Effects of Climate Change," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Cabalu, Helen & Koshy, Paul & Corong, Erwin & Rodriguez, U-Primo E. & Endriga, Benjamin A., 2015. "Modelling the impact of energy policies on the Philippine economy: Carbon tax, energy efficiency, and changes in the energy mix," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 222-237.
    4. Zheng LU & Xiang DENG, 2017. "Regional Specialization: New Methods Of Measurement And The Trends In China 1987-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 119-134.
    5. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    6. Li, Aijun & Du, Nan & Wei, Qian, 2014. "The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 155-163.
    7. Strand, Jon, 2011. "Carbon offsets with endogenous environmental policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 371-378, March.
    8. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Duval, Romain & Tavoni, Massimo, 2011. "What should we expect from innovation? A model-based assessment of the environmental and mitigation cost implications of climate-related R&D," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1313-1320.
    9. Richard S. J. Tol & In Chang Hwang & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "The Effect of Learning on Climate Policy under Fat-tailed Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 5312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Which industry is greener? An empirical study of nine industries in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 381-388.
    11. Pycroft, Jonathan & Vergano, Lucia & Hope, Chris & Paci, Daniele & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "A tale of tails: Uncertainty and the social cost of carbon dioxide," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    12. Simon Levin & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "On the Coevolution of Economic and Ecological Systems," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 355-377, October.
    13. Hahn Robert, 2010. "Designing Smarter Regulation with Improved Benefit-Cost Analysis," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, July.
    14. Golub, Alexander (Голуб, Александр), 2018. "Methodological Issues of Assessing Investment Risks in Projects Weakening the Dependence of the Russian Economy on Natural Resources and Providing a Transition to Low-Carbon Development [Методологи," Working Papers 071802, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    15. Bommier, Antoine & Lanz, Bruno & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-22.
    16. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Matthew J. Holian & Matthew E. Kahn, 2014. "Household Demand for Low Carbon Public Policies: Evidence from California," NBER Working Papers 19965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    19. Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:morc11:188122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.weadapt.org/organisation/amaeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.