Confluence of climate, violence, disease, and cost shocks: vulnerability of and impacts on Nigerian Maize Traders

Using unique primary survey data on 1100 Nigerian maize traders, we use probit models to estimate the probability of experiencing exogenous shocks and its relationship to trader characteristics (gender, size, and location), and traders vulnerability, measured as the probability of experiencing severe impacts. We study five types of exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price changes, spoilage, and COVID-19. We analyze the relationship among these shocks and the trader characteristics that make traders more vulnerable. We find traders are prone to experience more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. This is especially the case for price shocks, which are often accompanied by violence, climate, and COVID shocks. The poorer Northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks, with Northern traders experiencing more price shocks, and Southern traders more violence shocks but in their long supply chains from the North. Women are more prone to experience a violence shock and men, a severe climate event. A limitation is that the data only analyze the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantify lost income. A key policy implication is the need for a differentiated response and prevention strategy based on the particular mix of shocks and types of traders and regions.