IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae09/51674.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How robust are indicator based poverty assessment tools over time? Empirical evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • van Edig, Xenia
  • Schwarze, Stefan
  • Zeller, Manfred

Abstract

Eradicating poverty is one of the most urgent concerns of development policies. Organisations aiming at reducing poverty need simple and stable tools to detect poor households. Using data from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, this study aims to test first whether two indicators sets for poverty assessment found in 2005 are still capable in predicting absolute poverty and second, if the indicator composition remains robust over time. Data from two household surveys were used: In 2005 we surveyed 264 households in the vicinity of the Lore Lindu National Park in Central Sulawesi to obtain indicators of poverty and to derive the daily per capita consumption expenditures. In total 280 indicators were sampled. Two different multivariate regression models were fit to this data-set. One model (Model 1) included all sampled indicators and the other one (Model 2) contained only easily verifiable indicators as ranked by local staff. Each of the models yielded a different set of 15 indicators that predicted poverty best. In 2007, we conducted an additional survey with the identical questionnaires in the same households. We used the data from 2007 to estimate the poverty status of the households with the indicators derived in 2005. Furthermore, we applied the same regression models again to detect changes in the indicator composition. In Central Sulawesi, almost 20% of the rural population was identified as being very poor in the years 2005 and 2007. Regarding the prediction power of the 2005 indicators we found that the prediction power for 2007 mainly was influenced by the error of over-predicting the poor. When re-estimating the models, the accuracy levels remained similar, but the indicator composition changed.

Suggested Citation

  • van Edig, Xenia & Schwarze, Stefan & Zeller, Manfred, 2009. "How robust are indicator based poverty assessment tools over time? Empirical evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51674, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51674
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51674
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/51674/files/IAAE_590_van_Edig_et_al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.51674?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minot, Nicholas, 2000. "Generating Disaggregated Poverty Maps: An Application to Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 319-331, February.
    2. Ahmed, Akhter U. & Bouis, Howarth E., 2002. "Weighing what's practical," FCND briefs 132, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Alcaraz V., Gabriela & Zeller, Manfred, 2007. "Use of household food insecurity scales for assessing poverty in Bangladesh and Uganda," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7939, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Wodon, Quentin T., 1997. "Targeting the poor using ROC curves," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2083-2092, December.
    5. Ahmed, Akhter U. & Bouis, Howarth E., 2002. "Weighing what's practical: proxy means tests for targeting food subsidies in Egypt," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5-6), pages 519-540.
    6. Johannsen, Julia & Zeller, Manfred, 2006. "Operational Poverty Targeting by Means of Proxy Indicators - The Example of Peru," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25492, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edig, Xenia van & Schwarze, Stefan & Zeller, Manfred, 2013. "Poverty Assessment by Proxy-Means Tests: Are Indicator-Based Estimations Robust over Time? A Study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(01), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Brown, Caitlin & Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 2018. "A poor means test? Econometric targeting in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 109-124.
    3. John A. Maluccio, 2009. "Household targeting in practice: The Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    4. Stoeffler, Quentin & Mills, Bradford & del Ninno, Carlo, 2016. "Reaching the Poor: Cash Transfer Program Targeting in Cameroon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 244-263.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4334 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Adesina, Adedoyin & Akogun, Oladele & Dillon, Andrew & Friedman, Jed & Njobdi, Sani & Serneels, Pieter, 2017. "Robustness and External Validity: What do we Learn from Repeated Study Designs over Time?," 2018 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2018, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 266292, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Christophe Muller & Sami Bibi, 2006. "Focused Targeting Against Poverty Evidence From Tunisia," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    8. Schleicher, Michael & Souares, Aurélia & Pacere, Athanase Narangoro & Sauerborn, Rainer & Klonner, Stefan, 2016. "Decentralized versus Statistical Targeting of Anti-Poverty Programs: Evidence from Burkina Faso," Working Papers 0623, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Christophe Muller, 2007. "Anti-Poverty Transfers without Riots in Tunisia," Working Papers DT/2007/08, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Sharif, Iffath A., 2012. "Can Proxy Means Testing Improve the Targeting Performance of Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh?," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(2), pages 1-43, June.
    11. Akogun, Oladele & Dillon, Andrew & Friedman, Jed & Prasann, Ashesh & Serneels, Pieter, 2017. "Productivity and Health: Alternative Productivity Measures using Physical Activity," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258380, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. World Bank, 2009. "Social Assistance Transfers in Bosnia and Herzegovina : Moving Toward a More Sustainable and Better-Targeted Safety Net," World Bank Publications - Reports 18607, The World Bank Group.
    13. Aguila, Emma & Kapteyn, Arie & Tassot, Caroline, 2017. "Designing cash transfer programs for an older population: The Mexican case," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 111-121.
    14. Barrios, Erniel B. & Mina, Christian D., 2009. "Profiling Poverty with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines," Discussion Papers DP 2009-29, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    15. González-Flores, Mario & Heracleous, Maria & Winters, Paul, 2012. "Leaving the Safety Net: An Analysis of Dropouts in an Urban Conditional Cash Transfer Program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2505-2521.
    16. Ahmed, Akhter U. & del Ninno, Carlo, 2002. "The Food For Education program in Bangladesh," FCND briefs 138, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Cruz-Martinez, Gibran, 2019. "Older‐Age Social Pensions and Poverty: Revisiting Assumptions on Targeting and Universalism," SocArXiv y9uk6, Center for Open Science.
    18. Todd Benson & Charles Machinjili & Lawrence Kachikopa, 2004. "Poverty in Malawi, 1998," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 419-441.
    19. World Bank, 2009. "Guatemala - Poverty assessment : good performance at low levels," World Bank Publications - Reports 3063, The World Bank Group.
    20. Cruz-Martinez, Gibran, 2019. "Older‐Age Social Pensions and Poverty: Revisiting Assumptions on Targeting and Universalism," SocArXiv y9uk6_v1, Center for Open Science.
    21. Claus ASTRUP & Sébastien DESSUS, 2005. "Targeting The Poor Beyond Gaza Or The West Bank: The Geography Of Poverty In The Palestinian Territories," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 21, pages 173-197.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51674. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.