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Unerwünschte Effekte der Einkommensteuergesetzgebung auf die Wahl waldbaulicher Alternativen: Eine Simulationsstudie aus der Sicht eines risikomeidenden Entscheiders

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  • Nürnberger, Karin
  • Hahn, Andreas
  • Jörg, Rößiger
  • Thomas, Knoke

Abstract

Diese Arbeit untersucht anhand einer Simulationsstudie, ob die Einkommensteuerregelung des § 34b EStG Einfluss auf das waldbauliche Optimum risikomeidender Investoren nimmt und inwieweit dies aktuellen forstpolitischen Zielsetzungen zuwiderläuft. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einen Einfluss der Einkommensteuer auf das Portfoliooptimum aus Baumarten und Umtriebszeiten. In der Variante ohne Einkommensteuer lässt sich das Gesamtportfolio als eine Form des naturnahen Waldbaus deuten. Für die Varianten mit Einkommensteuer ergibt sich ein maximaler Value-at-Risk, bei dem das optimierte Portfolio durch einen höheren Anteil risikoreicherer Fichte, eine Konzentration der Holzentnahmen auf das maximale Bestandsalter und reduzierte Flächenanteile von Verjüngungshieben in geringeren Bestandsaltern gekennzeichnet ist. Diese Tendenzen verstärken sich in der Variante mit Einkommensteuerermäßigung im Kalamitätsfall. Deshalb können die beiden steuerintegrierenden Varianten als Waldbaustrategien verstanden werden, die im Vergleich zur Basisvariante tendenziell zu gleichaltrigen Reinbeständen mit höheren Anteilen an risikoreichen Baumarten führen. Die Ergebnisse führen zu dem Schluss, dass die Anwendung der Steuerregelung des § 34b EStG tendenziell zu gleichaltrigen Beständen mit mehr Fichte führt. Die Kosten des höheren Risikos von fichtendominierten Waldbaustrategien werden durch die Steuerermäßigung und damit von der Allgemeinheit abgefedert. Diese risikoförderne Wirkung einer staatlichen Risikobeteiligung ist in der Literatur als Domar-Musgrave-Effekt bekannt. Von der Anwendung dieser Norm profitieren Waldbesitzer mit höherem Einkommen und somit oftmals die größeren Waldeigentümer tendenziell stärker als Kleinprivatwaldbesitzer. Forstpolitisch ist eine Vereinfachung der Rechtsvorschrift anzustreben, in der risikoreiche Baumarten nicht begünstigt werden. Eine Bindung der Steuerprivilegien an Maßnahmen des Waldumbaus erscheint vor dem Hintergrund der erwarteten Zunahme von Kalamitätsnutzungen nötig und zeitgemäß.

Suggested Citation

  • Nürnberger, Karin & Hahn, Andreas & Jörg, Rößiger & Thomas, Knoke, 2013. "Unerwünschte Effekte der Einkommensteuergesetzgebung auf die Wahl waldbaulicher Alternativen: Eine Simulationsstudie aus der Sicht eines risikomeidenden Entscheiders," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156102, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi13:156102
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.156102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dieter, Matthias, 2001. "Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 157-166, June.
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