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ABSCHATZUNG DES UNTERNEHMERISCHEN RISIKOS BEIM BETRIEB EINER BIOGASANLAGE MIT HILFE DER MONTECARLO-METHODE (German)

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  • Rauh, Stefan
  • Berenz, Stefan
  • Heissenhuber, Alois

Abstract

Die Novellierung des Gesetzes für den Vorrang Erneuerbarer Energien (EEG) führte zu einem verstärkten Einstieg von Landwirten in die Biogasproduktion. Jedoch können die mit dem EEG verbundenen relativ hohen Vergütungssätze das vorhandene Investitionsrisiko in einer Biogasanlage nicht eliminieren. Es existiert eine gewisse Zahl an Einflussfaktoren, welche die Wirtschaftlichkeit nachhaltig beeinflussen. Eine Risikoanalyse mittels der Monte-Carlo- Methode zeigt den enormen Einfluss der Risikofaktoren auf die Varianz des Gewinns. Es wird dadurch deutlich, dass eine statische Planungsrechnung, welche Unsicherheit nicht berücksichtigt, oftmals zu einer Fehleinschätzung führen kann. Gleichzeitig gelingt es mit Hilfe einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation die größten Risikofaktoren bei der Biogasproduktion zu identifizieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Rauh, Stefan & Berenz, Stefan & Heissenhuber, Alois, 2007. "ABSCHATZUNG DES UNTERNEHMERISCHEN RISIKOS BEIM BETRIEB EINER BIOGASANLAGE MIT HILFE DER MONTECARLO-METHODE (German)," 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 7588, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi07:7588
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Petrolia, Daniel R., 2006. "The Economics of Harvesting and Transporting Hardwood Forest Residue for Conversion to Fuel Ethanol: A Case Study for Minnesota," Staff Papers 14020, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. Petrolia, Daniel R., 2006. "The Economics of Harvesting and Transporting Corn Stover for Conversion to Fuel Ethanol: A Case Study for Minnesota," Staff Papers 14213, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Anton, Jesus & Giner, Celine, 2005. "Can Risk Reducing Policies Reduce Farmer's Risk and Improve Their Welfare?," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24578, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steinhorst, Martin Philipp & Empl, Johannes-Baptist & Bahrs, Enno, 2014. "Interdependenzen Zwischen Risikoeinstellungen Und Entscheidungen In Der Planung Sowie Im Betrieb Von Biogasanlagen," 54th Annual Conference, Goettingen, Germany, September 17-19, 2014 187894, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Steinhorst, M.P. & Empl, J.-B. & Bahrs, E., 2015. "Interdependenzen zwischen Risikoeinstellungen und Entscheidungen in der Planung sowie im Betrieb von Biogasanlagen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 50, March.
    3. Kröber, M. & Hank, K. & Heinrich, J. & Wagner, P., 2009. "Ermittlung der Wirtschaftlichkeit des Energieholzanbaus in Kurzumtriebsplantagen – Risikoanalyse mit Hilfe der Mote-Carlo- Simulation," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 44, March.

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