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Modelling yield risk measures of major crop plants

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  • Kobus, Pawel

Abstract

The paper deals with the problem of modelling yield risk measures for major crop plants in Poland. Hence, in some cases the gamma distribution offers a better fit to the data than normal distribution, and in addition to linear models, generalized linear models were also used. The research was based on data from Polish FADN, with sample sizes ranging from 416 up to 2300, depending on the crop plant. It was found that models based on the farm level data, can explain on average 20% of variation coefficient unevenness. The most important variables were average yield, type of farming, arable area and land quality. The elimination of the average yield from the models reduced the average determination coefficient to about 9%.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobus, Pawel, 2012. "Modelling yield risk measures of major crop plants," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122535, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122535
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.122535
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/122535/files/KOBUS.pdf
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    1. Monier-Dilhan, Sylvette & Ossard, Herve, 1998. "Producers' Loss Due to Asymmetric Information: An Application to a Specific Case," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 25(2), pages 155-169.
    2. Kobus, Paweł, 2010. "Modelling wheat yields variability in Polish voivodeships," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 10(25), pages 1-8, September.
    3. Marra, Michele C. & Schurle, Bryan W., 1994. "Kansas Wheat Yield Risk Measures And Aggregation: A Meta- Analysis Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-9, July.
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    Risk and Uncertainty;

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