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Corn Price Behavior – Volatility transmission during the boom on futures Markets

Author

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  • Ledebur, Oliver von
  • Schmitz, Jochen

Abstract

Since 2000 a number of factors impacted agricultural markets drastically. Among these are structural changes in global demand and repeated supply constraints that supported the observed positive development of agricultural prices. Given the increasingly interdependent global markets, the question arises of in how far an isolated view of a single market, when analysing price volatility, is sufficient? The paper is a contribution to the debate on the recent commodity price bubble and the relationship among commodity futures markets for agricultural raw materials. More particularly, the transmission of price volatility between commodity future markets is analysed. The background question is whether and to what extent the volatility of agricultural commodity prices at different market places have been transferred during the drastic price changes of 2008. In this analysis the volatility of the maize future price at three different commodity futures exchange is modelled as a multivariate GARCH - process. By doing so, interactions between stock markets in different venues are incorporated. The results of the econometric analysis are discussed against the background of the developments in agricultural and biofuel policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ledebur, Oliver von & Schmitz, Jochen, 2009. "Corn Price Behavior – Volatility transmission during the boom on futures Markets," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58136, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa113:58136
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.58136
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    2. Francisco Ortiz Arango & Alma Nelly Montiel Guzmán, 2017. "Transmission of future prices of corn of the Chicago Board of Trade to the Mexican spot market," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(3), pages 941-957, Julio-Sep.
    3. Lee , Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities: A Panel Analysis," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 373, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy;

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