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Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices

Author

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  • O'Connor, Declan
  • Keane, Michael
  • Barnes, Edel

Abstract

The policy environment facing the EU dairy industry continues to undergo considerable change under WTO and CAP reform. Movement away from supply management by the EU and a more liberal global agricultural trading system will involve greater price volatility for dairy commodities. It is anticipated that EU dairy prices will more closely align with world prices. World prices are both lower and more volatile than EU prices and it is further assumed that this increased volatility will be transmitted to EU prices. Price volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Representative EU and world butter and SMP (Skim Milk Powder) prices are considered and using the ARMA and GARCH framework their volatility is quantified.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Connor, Declan & Keane, Michael & Barnes, Edel, 2009. "Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58106, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa113:58106
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.58106
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in dairy markets," Papers 2104.12707, arXiv.org.
    2. Jittima Singvejsakul & Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol & Budsara Limnirankul, 2021. "Modeling the Price Volatility of Cassava Chips in Thailand: Evidence from Bayesian GARCH-X Estimates," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, September.
    3. Thorne, Fiona S., 2012. "Potato Prices as Affected by Supply and Demand Factors: An Irish Case Study," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122473, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Kastner, Gregor, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(2), January.
    5. Szenderák, János & Popp, József & Harangi-Rákos, Mónika, 2019. "Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Producer Price of Milk between some EU Member States," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(2), June.
    6. Huidan Xue & Chenguang Li & Liming Wang & Wen-Hao Su, 2021. "Spatial Price Transmission and Price Dynamics of Global Butter Export Market under Economic Shocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.

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