Structural Price Fluctuation Caused by Oil Price Variation in China’s Mutton and Beef Market

Beef and mutton to be as the essential daily consumption, their prices have been given much attention by the government, researchers, and households. And some of researchers thinks that the instability of their prices is the result of the market gaming. However, the aim of my study is to employ and develop the VAR model of order p (price) and relative impulse response functions to account for the role that endogenous variables and oil price effect to the price fluctuation. We ask to how analyze and in what methods endogenous variable and oil price play a role for price transmission, movement and formation. We do so to enable agricultural policy makers, producer, and academics to understand the nuances of what factors and how they can have an obvious impact on price changes. Collecting 20 year monthly relevant data, we show that price changes are mutually affected by endogenous variables (retail price, producer price, international price and corn price) and oil price under VAR system analysis. The significance of this study is that it informs our theoretical understanding of forecasting the trend of prices by demonstrating the movement of prices of beef and mutton under introducing econometric VAR model, and informs our empirical understanding of stabilizing prices and guiding production.