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A cobweb model of land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops

Author

Listed:
  • Lundberg, Liv
  • Jonson, Emma
  • Lindgren, Kristian
  • Bryngelsson, David
  • Verendel, Vilhelm

Abstract

We present a model of interacting cobweb markets and apply it to land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops. In our model the markets are interlinked on the supply side by the limited availability of land. Therefore, instabilities are transferred between the markets and we find that bioenergy demand affects food price volatility. The agents in the model have heterogeneous production capacities, representing variation in global land quality. When we allow agents to choose price predictor, we find that a more sophisticated (but costly) predictor is concentrated to some key parcels of land, which enables the system to reduce instability significantly. The system can also be brought closer to a stable state by introducing costs for changing production type, but it may then be shifted away from the optimum situation predicted by the corresponding equilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lundberg, Liv & Jonson, Emma & Lindgren, Kristian & Bryngelsson, David & Verendel, Vilhelm, 2015. "A cobweb model of land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:53:y:2015:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
    2. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
    3. Brian D. Wright, 2012. "International Grain Reserves And Other Instruments to Address Volatility in Grain Markets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 222-260, August.
    4. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    8. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    9. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fausto, Cavalli, 2016. "A cobweb model with alternating demand and supply functions," Working Papers 325, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2016.
    2. Mardani Najafabadi, Mostafa & Ziaee, Saman & Nikouei, Alireza & Ahmadpour Borazjani, Mahmoud, 2019. "Mathematical programming model (MMP) for optimization of regional cropping patterns decisions: A case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 218-232.
    3. Poitras, Geoffrey, 2023. "Cobweb Theory, Market Stability, And Price Expectations," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 137-161, March.
    4. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2018. "Competing Land Uses and Fossil Fuel, Optimal Energy Conversion Rates During the Transition Toward a Green Economy Under a Pollution Stock Constraint," TSE Working Papers 18-981, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Kristian Lindgren & Emma Jonson & Liv Lundberg, 2015. "Projection Of A Heterogenous Agent-Based Production Economy Model To A Closed Dynamics Of Aggregate Variables," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(05n06), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Ge Gao & Xinmin Liu & Huijun Sun & Jianjun Wu & Haiqing Liu & Wei (Walker) Wang & Zhen Wang & Tao Wang & Haoming Du, 2019. "Marginal Cost Pricing Analysis on Tradable Credits in Traffic Engineering," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, January.
    7. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Miranda, Mario J., 2018. "Complex price dynamics in vertically linked cobweb markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 363-378.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    D84; D92; E32; Q11; Q18; Q42; Cobweb model; Price fluctuations; Market interactions; Stability; Land-use competition; Bioenergy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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