Spatial Price Transmission in the Retail Rice Markets of the Philippines

Rice markets in the Philippines recently experienced various policy shocks, including the implementation of the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL) in March 2019, and the imposition of price freeze during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and mandated ceiling prices on milled rice in September 2023. This study aims to examine the spatial price transmission of regular milled rice across 17 regional retail markets. By analyzing monthly price data from January 2012 to December 2023, the study seeks to describe structural breaks in price series, assess the speed and magnitude of price adjustments, determine the nature and direction of price transmissions, and identify factors influencing spatial price transmissions. Various analytical techniques, such as descriptive analysis, unit root and structural break tests, Toda-Yamamoto causality tests, and the autoregressive distributed lag technique, are employed to analyze the price series. The findings reveal significant positive and negative structural breaks. Both Central Luzon, the top producer of paddy rice, and Eastern Visayas, the main consumer of regular milled rice, serve as reference markets. The National Capital Region also functions as a central market. The speed of price adjustments ranges from 1.18 to 3.60 months, while asymmetric price transmission is observed in two out of four spatially integrated regional markets. Cagayan Valley exhibits almost one-to-one price transmission, whereas the other reference markets have an elasticity of price transmission of less than 0.80. The study recommends monitoring prices, disseminating market information, investigating unfair trade practices, improving NFA inventory management, and developing targeted price and market policy measures.