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The impact of the Ukraine conflict on world grains prices

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  • Gilbert, Christopher L.

Abstract

The war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, has disrupted the important Black Sea grain trade. At the same time, and partly as a consequence of the war and of Western sanctions, both energy and fertilizer prices have soared. Many commentators have attributed rises in food prices on world marketsto the Ukraine conflict. The paper reports an analysis of the impact of the war on wheat and corn prices in the world market. The estimates are obtained from an empirical implementation of the competitive storage model. The model links the prices of hard wheat and corn to grain availability, grain stocks and crude oil and fertilizer prices taking into account the Black Sea Grains Initiative (BSGI). Three counterfactuals are analyzed – “no war”, “no BSGI” and “no sanctions”.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Christopher L., 2023. "The impact of the Ukraine conflict on world grains prices," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334525, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc23:334525
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.334525
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/334525/files/AES2023_UkraineConflict.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Wright, Brian, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt11715438, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Demand and Price Analysis;

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