IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea79/278189.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Return-Risk Analysis of the Decision to Participate in Government Price Support Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiser, E.H.
  • Robinson, B.H.

Abstract

Most farm management decisions are made under conditions of risk. Risk in agriculture arises from market forces, weather, disease, insect damage, and other factors which cannot be controlled or accurately predicted. One of the major goals of farm commodity programs is to reduce instability in both prices and supplies. With increased stability, producers can make more realistic business plans. Current commodity programs contain price supports in the form of loans and target prices as well as set-aside and diversion provisions. While these provisions are designed to reduce instability, they represent additional variables the farmer must consider in his planning process. The objective of this paper is to present a model that can be used to examine the price risk reducing effects of government programs on farm organization for alternative farm tenure situations. Many models used to study farm management problems are specified under assumed certainty. For example, conventional linear programming does not really accommodate risk. Of course, assumed yields and prices can be changed in these models to analyze their effects on farm organization, but there is no measurement of the risk associated with each resulting farm organization. As a result, conventional linear programming solutions of farm organizations have often been rejected because the solutions may specify actions that lead to a higher degree of risk than many farm managers are willing to accept

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, E.H. & Robinson, B.H., 1979. "A Return-Risk Analysis of the Decision to Participate in Government Price Support Programs," 1979 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, Pullman, Washington 278189, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea79:278189
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278189/files/aaea-1979-056.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278189?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. B. R. Hazell, 1971. "A Linear Alternative to Quadratic and Semivariance Programming for Farm Planning under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 53-62.
    2. P. B. R. Hazell, 1971. "A Linear Alternative to Quadratic and Semivariance Programming for Farm Planning under Uncertainty: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(4), pages 664-665.
    3. John T. Scott & Chester B. Baker, 1972. "A Practical Way to Select an Optimum Farm Plan Under Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(4_Part_1), pages 657-660.
    4. J. M. Vandeputte & C. B. Baker, 1970. "Specifying the Allocation of Income among Taxes, Consumption, and Savings in Linear Programming Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 521-527.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walker, Odell L. & Hardin, Mike L. & Mapp, Harry P., Jr. & Roush, Clint E., 1979. "Farm Growth And Estate Transfer In An Uncertain Environment," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, July.
    2. Timothy J. Lowe & Paul V. Preckel, 2004. "Decision Technologies for Agribusiness Problems: A Brief Review of Selected Literature and a Call for Research," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 201-208.
    3. Adams, Richard M. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Woolery, Bruce A., 1980. "Alternative Parameter Specification In E, V Analysis: Implications For Farm Level Decision Making," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, July.
    4. Libbin, James D. & Johnson, Donald A. & Boehlje, Michael D. & Trede, Larry D., 1977. "A Risk-Return Analysis For The Midwest Farmer-Feeder," ISU General Staff Papers 197712010800001065, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Petrick, Martin & Ditges, C. Markus, 2000. "Risk In Agriculture As Impediment To Rural Lending - The Case Of North-Western Kazakhstan," IAMO Discussion Papers 14939, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    6. Kaiser, Eddie H. & Robinson, Bobby H., 1982. "Maximizing Probability of Return as a Method to Consider Risk in Farm Planning Models," Working Papers 116879, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    7. Kliebenstein, James B. & Scott, John T., Jr., 1975. "Assessment Of Risk When Contract Crops Are Included Among Other Crop Alternatives," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-6, December.
    8. Turvey, Calum G. & Driver, H.C., 1985. "An Examination of Systematic Risks in Agriculture: A Farm Sector Capital Asset Pricing Model," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278553, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Behzadi, Golnar & O’Sullivan, Michael Justin & Olsen, Tava Lennon & Zhang, Abraham, 2018. "Agribusiness supply chain risk management: A review of quantitative decision models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-42.
    10. Anderson, Kim B. & Mapp, Harry P., Jr., 1996. "Risk Management Programs In Extension," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-8, July.
    11. Doppler, Werner & Salman, Amer Z. & Al-Karablieh, Emad K. & Wolff, Heinz-Peter, 2002. "The impact of water price strategies on the allocation of irrigation water: the case of the Jordan Valley," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 171-182, June.
    12. Young, Douglas & Lin, William & Pope, Rulon & Robison, Lindon & Selley, Roger, 1979. "Risk Preferences Of Agricultual Producers:Their Measurement And Use," Risk Management in Agriculture: Behavioral, Managerial, and Policy Issues, January 25-26, 1979, San Francisco, California 271459, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    13. King, Robert P. & Robison, Lindon J., 1980. "Implementing Stochastic Dominance With Respect To A Function," Risk Analysis in Agriculture: Research and Educational Developments, January 16-18, 1980, Tucson, Arizona 271563, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    14. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2004. "Optimierung unter Unsicherheit mit Hilfe stochastischer Simulation und Genetischer Algorithmen – dargestellt anhand der Optimierung des Produktionsprogramms eines Brandenburger Marktfruchtbetriebes," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 53(07), pages 1-16.
    15. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(1), March.
    16. Spielman, Kimberly & Whipple, Glen & McLemore, Dan, 1982. "Estimation Of A Long Run Average Cost Curve Using A Frontier Function: An Application To The Tennessee Livestock Auction Market Industry," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279185, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Bechtel, Amos I. & Young, Douglas L., 1999. "The Importance Of Using Farm Level Risk Estimates In Crp Enrollment Decisions," 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND 35717, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Erasmus, Barend & van Jaarsveld, Albert & van Zyl, Johan & Vink, Nick, 2000. "The effects of climate change on the farm sector in the Western Cape," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(4), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Asci, Serhat & VanSickle, John J. & Cantliffe, Daniel J., 2014. "Risk in Investment Decision Making and Greenhouse Tomato Production Expansion in Florida," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1-26, November.
    20. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 1995. "Land Allocation In The Presence Of Estimation Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea79:278189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.aaea.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.