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Geostatistics, Basis Risk, and Index Insurance

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  • Norton, Michael
  • Boucher, Stephen
  • Verteramo Chiu, Leslie

Abstract

This paper describes the application of geostatistics to weather index insurance in order to systematically analyze spatial basis risk inherent in index insurance contracts. The notion of spatial autocorrelation is in general overlooked by index insurance practitioners, but has profound implications for the effectiveness of the insurance offered. The analysis shows that it is possible to offer contracts from multiple weather stations to a single farmer, and that doing so will likely reduce the basis risk from a single contract. The two major implications of the paper are 1) that index insurance should be offered in more flexible contracts that allow farmers to hedge their production according to their perceptions of basis risk and their appetites for risk, and 2) the tradeoff between local (yield) correlation and spatial correlation needs to be more carefully considered, as it may even be better to offer contracts with poor yield correlation if they can include more spatial coverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Norton, Michael & Boucher, Stephen & Verteramo Chiu, Leslie, 2015. "Geostatistics, Basis Risk, and Index Insurance," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205755, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205755
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205755
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205755/files/Norton_AAEA_2015.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. S. Viswanathan & Adriano Rampini, 2013. "Household risk management," 2013 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    5. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    6. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2013. "Informal Risk Sharing, Index Insurance, and Risk Taking in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 375-380, May.
    7. Dercon, Stefan & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Clarke, Daniel & Outes-Leon, Ingo & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu, 2014. "Offering rainfall insurance to informal insurance groups: Evidence from a field experiment in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 132-143.
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    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;

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