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A Coupled Spatial Economic-Hydrological Model of Cropland Transitions and Environmental Impacts

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  • Zhang, Wendong
  • Na, Chen
  • Irwin, Elena G.
  • Martin, Jay F.
  • Gebremariam, Seyoum Y.
  • Gildow, Marie

Abstract

Agricultural land use change has long been of a considerable interest to agricultural and resource economists. With a focus on western Lake Erie basin, the objective of this paper is to identify the determinants of recent land use transitions from non-agricultural land into cropland and investigating the environmental impacts of these recent changes in terms of agricultural nutrient runoffs. Specifically, we analyze the transitions from non-crop rural land into different crop rotation patterns using a mixed logit model with error components that relaxes the IIA assumption. We then investigate the environmental effects of these changes using an existing watershed hydrological model – Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) by translating the land use changes into changes in nutrient runoff into Lake Erie, focusing particularly on dissolved phosphorus.By analyzing the operators’ field-level decisions of transitioning non-cropland into crop production and its environmental impacts, our model provides useful insights into recent trends of expanding agricultural production. This work also contributes to the literature on coupled economic-ecological models by offering the first SWAT application on land use transitions into and out of agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wendong & Na, Chen & Irwin, Elena G. & Martin, Jay F. & Gebremariam, Seyoum Y. & Gildow, Marie, 2014. "A Coupled Spatial Economic-Hydrological Model of Cropland Transitions and Environmental Impacts," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170599, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170599
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lubowski, Ruben N. & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Stavins, Robert N., 2006. "Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 135-152, March.
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    3. Lewis, David J. & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Nelson, Erik & Polasky, Stephen, 2011. "The efficiency of voluntary incentive policies for preventing biodiversity loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 192-211, January.
    4. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-352, June.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use;
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