IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea14/170490.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long term consequences of changing global food consumption patterns on U.S. agricultural commodity export demand

Author

Listed:
  • Debnath, Deepayan
  • Thompson, Wyatt
  • Helmar, Michael
  • Julian, Binfield

Abstract

Developing countries now buy a larger share of U.S. agricultural exports than developed countries, and this new pattern of agricultural trade can have implications for the elasticity of U.S. export demand. This research estimates whether the U.S. export demand is becoming more price elastic or inelastic. A multi-market, multi-region partial equilibrium model is used to estimate the U.S. export demand for corn and wheat for the current crop year 2014/15 and projected year 2022/23. U.S. export demand for wheat is more elastic as compared to corn in the base period, suggesting that with the growing role of more price sensitive consumers in developing countries as well as the large share of the U.S. in corn markets. Export demands are found to become less elastic, or even inelastic, over a ten-year projection period if income growth is steady. Results support non-constant elasticities in medium- or long-run analysis, such as might be required for climate or food security research.

Suggested Citation

  • Debnath, Deepayan & Thompson, Wyatt & Helmar, Michael & Julian, Binfield, 2014. "Long term consequences of changing global food consumption patterns on U.S. agricultural commodity export demand," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170490, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170490
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/170490/files/AAEA_Food%20Policy_2014_V5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.170490?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. -, 2009. "United States economic outlook," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28870, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. -, 2009. "United States economic outlook," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28869, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Rask, Kolleen J. & Rask, Norman, 2011. "Economic development and food production-consumption balance: A growing global challenge," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 186-196, April.
    4. Mattson, Jeremy W. & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Characteristics Of The Declining U.S. Agricultural Trade Surplus," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23503, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    5. Gardiner, Walter H. & Dixit, Praveen M, 1987. "Price Elasticity of Export Demand: Concepts and Estimates," Foreign Agricultural Economic Report (FAER) 305286, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Peter Montiel, 2009. "Crisis Response in Latin America: Is the "Rainy Day" at Hand?," Research Department Publications 4628, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Natalia Ishchukova & Luboš Smutka, 2013. "Revealed comparative advantage of Russian agricultural exports," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 941-952.
    4. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima, 2015. "Corporate Saving in Global Rebalancing," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 3, pages 079-103, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Fitoussi Jean Paul & Saraceno Francesco, 2010. "Europe: How Deep Is a Crisis? Policy Responses and Structural Factors Behind Diverging Performances," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Gamberoni, Elisa & Von Uexkull, Erik & Weber, Sebastian, 2010. "The Roles of Openness and Labor Market Institutions for Employment Dynamics during Economic Crises," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 29, pages 1-5, August.
    7. Zulquar Nain & Bandi Kamaiah, 2020. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 237-265.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Harold James, 2009. "The Great Depression Analogy," NBER Working Papers 15584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lorena Škuflić & Mira Krpan & Berislav Žmuk, 2018. "Migration and the economic crisis in the European Union member states: cluster analysis," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(2), pages 979-1000, December.
    10. Jean Loic Begue Turon & Jean Cordier & Sandrine Hallot & Jean Baptiste Plasmans & David Weiller, 2016. "Utilisation des marchés à terme par les acteurs commerciaux exposés à la volatilité des marchés de grains et du sucre," Working Papers hal-02068381, HAL.
    11. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2012. "Trade concentration and crisis spillover: Case study of transmission of the supprime crisis to Thailand," Working Papers 11212, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    12. David C. Wheelock, 2010. "Lessons learned? comparing the Federal Reserve's responses to the crises of 1929-1933 and 2007-2009," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Mar), pages 89-108.
    13. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.
    14. Louay Karadsheh & Samer Alhawari & Amine Nehari Talet, 2012. "The Support of Knowledge Process to Enhance Risk Analysis in Jordanian Telecommunication Companies," Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-15.
    15. Adi Eleonor Trifu, 2014. "Influence Of The Registration Of Vehicles Upon The Development Of The Romanian Oil Industry," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 278-289, November.
    16. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2010. "Inflation may be the next dragon to slay," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 4-9.
    17. Den Haan, Wouter & Cai, Xiaoming, 2009. "Predicting recoveries and the importance of using enough information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7508, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2013. "Fiscal deficits and current account deficits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2062-2082.
    19. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2015. "How Is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 327-370, August.
    20. Joseph Kwaku Kidido & Elias Danyi Kuusaana, 2014. "Large-Scale Investment in Biofuel Feedstock Production and Emerging Land Issues in Ghana," Journal of Social Science Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 163-176, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.