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ENSO Forecast Value, Variable Climate and Stochastic Prices

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  • Letson, David
  • Podesta, Guillermo
  • Messina, Carlos
  • Ferreyra, Andres

Abstract

We evaluate ENSO forecasts when prices are variable and ENSO is a portion of overall climatic variability. Forecast responses include crop mix, cultivar,fertilization, and planting date. Price changes reduce forecast value by excluding responses. Predictable income variability (ENSO-related), as a share of the total, evaluates forecast skill.

Suggested Citation

  • Letson, David & Podesta, Guillermo & Messina, Carlos & Ferreyra, Andres, 2001. "ENSO Forecast Value, Variable Climate and Stochastic Prices," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20562, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20562
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James W. Mjelde & Harvey S.J. Hill & John F. Griffiths, 1998. "A Review of Current Evidence on Climate Forecasts and Their Economic Effects in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1089-1095.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.

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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

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