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Desastres y comercio

Author

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  • González Fernando Antonio Ignacio
  • Costa de Arguibel Facundo Eduardo

Abstract

En este trabajo examinamos el impacto que los desastres naturales generan sobre los flujos comerciales (exportación e importación) globales. Para ello utilizamos microdatos diarios a nivel de puerto (N=2,655,035 observaciones) de los flujos comerciales y los combinamos con registros georreferenciados de desastres naturales. La estrategia de identificación recae sobre un diseño de estudio de eventos que nos permite estimar el impacto dinámico de los desastres (i.e. en diferentes horizontes temporales). Los resultados muestran una caída sustancial (entre 47% y 39%) de las importaciones y exportaciones. Esta reducción desaparece al cabo de la primera semana luego del desastre y se observan amplias heterogeneidades entre países y entre puertos. Los resultados sugieren que el mecanismo causal para los efectos observados opera no únicamente a través de la destrucción de la infraestructura portuaria sino también a través de la destrucción de la infraestructura productiva local. Las políticas de mitigación y adaptación frente a desastres son críticas.

Suggested Citation

  • González Fernando Antonio Ignacio & Costa de Arguibel Facundo Eduardo, 2024. "Desastres y comercio," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4736, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General

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