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Estimación y pronóstico de demanda de transporte urbano en la ciudad de Villa

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Javier Romano
  • Juan José Pompilio Sartori

Abstract

Este estudio presenta estimaciones de modelos de elección discreta basados en una muestra de usuarios de transportes de la Ciudad de Villa Carlos Paz. Se presentan los resultados correspondientes a los viajes al trabajo. Se ha estimado un modelo logit multinomial y un logit multinomial mixto con parámetros aleatorios de elección de modo de transporte para viajar al lugar de trabajo con datos de preferencias declaradas. El estudio presenta, además, pronósticos de la cuota de mercado del uso de los diferentes modos de transporte, la valoración subjetiva de los ahorros de tiempo de viaje, tiempo de espera y cuadras caminadas en origen y destino al utilizar colectivo, como así también las elasticidades de demanda de la elección de modo de transporte ante la aplicación de políticas asociadas a cambios en algunas variables de nivel de servicio de los diferentes modos de transporte.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Javier Romano & Juan José Pompilio Sartori, 2019. "Estimación y pronóstico de demanda de transporte urbano en la ciudad de Villa," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4191, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4191
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    File URL: https://aaep.org.ar/works/works2019/pompilio.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demanda de transporte; preferencias declaradas; logit multinomial; logit multinomial mixto; elasticidad de la demanda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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