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An optimal non-uniform piecewise constant approximation for the patient arrival rate for a more efficient representation of the Emergency Departments arrival process

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto De Santis

    (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy)

  • Tommaso Giovannelli

    (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy)

  • Stefano Lucidi

    (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy)

  • Mauro Messedaglia

    (ACTOR Spin-Off Sapienza Universita' di Roma)

  • Massimo Roma

    (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy)

Abstract

Overcrowding represents an increasing and well studied phenomenon which afflicts Emergency Departments all over the world. Shortage of staff, flu season and lack of hospital beds are among the possible causes. As consequence, waiting times are enlarged and life of critical patients can be endangered.This urges ED managers to improve performance of healthcare services. Modeling approaches used to tackle this problem, are often based on Discrete Event Simulation, hence needing to accurately represent the patient arrival process to the ED. Since the arrival rate is time-dependent, suitable non stationary process models must be considered, such as the nonhomogeneous Poisson process.In this paper we focus on this arrival process, in order to determine the best piecewise-constant approximation of the arrival rate function. A proper number of non equally spaced intervals are used aiming at accurately representing the time-varying arrival rate. This is obtained by solving an integer non linear black box optimization problem with black box constraints. Data from a large Italian hospital ED are used to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto De Santis & Tommaso Giovannelli & Stefano Lucidi & Mauro Messedaglia & Massimo Roma, 2020. "An optimal non-uniform piecewise constant approximation for the patient arrival rate for a more efficient representation of the Emergency Departments arrival process," DIAG Technical Reports 2020-01, Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Universita' degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza".
    • Handle: RePEc:aeg:report:2020-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto De Santis & Tommaso Giovannelli & Stefano Lucidi & Mauro Messedaglia & Massimo Roma, 2022. "Determining the optimal piecewise constant approximation for the nonhomogeneous Poisson process rate of Emergency Department patient arrivals," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 979-1012, December.

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