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Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR Evidence

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  • Mthuli Ncube
  • Eliphas Ndou
  • Nombulelo Gumata

Abstract

We investigate the impact of unanticipated United States (US) bond yield increases, federal funds rate tightening, and monetary stimulus shocks on the South African economy using structural VAR models. Firstly, the US monetary stimulus shock leads to weak consumer price inflation, rand-dollar appreciation, real stock price revaluation, bond yield declines, decline in monetary aggregates and real interest rates in South Africa. Despite the weak trade channel evidence, other findings are consistent with predictions of a small open economy Mundell-Fleming model. Secondly, an unanticipated positive US medium-term bond yield shock leads to rand-dollar depreciation and rising bond yields as predicted by the portfolio balance exchange rate model. This same shock leads to significant real stock price declines, which is consistent with portfolio re-allocation driven by change in US bonds yields. Thirdly, we find that unanticipated US federal funds rate tightening leads to significant increases in South African bond yields, rand-dollar depreciation and delayed consumer price inflation

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  • Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2012. "Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR Evidence," Working Paper Series 410, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    3. McKenzie, Rex A, 2015. "Monetary transmission in Africa: a review of official sources," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    4. Kronick, Jeremy, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 59416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiov?? & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Capital Account Policies, Imf Programs And Growth In Developing Regions," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1085, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. Thanda Sithole & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Modeste Some, 2017. "The role of financial conditions in transmitting external shocks to South Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 150, pages 36-56.
    7. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Working Paper - 217 - Capital Account Policies, IMF Programs and Growth in Developing Regions," Working Paper Series 2155, African Development Bank.
    8. Yoshiyuki Fukuda & Yuki Kimura & Nao Sudo & Hiroshi Ugai, 2013. "Cross-country Transmission Effect of the U.S. Monetary Shock under Global Integration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    9. Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam & Babatunde Opadeji & Tuwe Soro Garbobiya & Augustine Ujunwa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Oil Price Shock in Nigeria: Persistent or Transitory," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-28, November.
    10. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "Examining volatility and spillover effects between markets for sovereign bonds of African countries and the world’s long term interest rate," MPRA Paper 117491, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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