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Working Paper 236 - Estimating Development Resilience: A Conditional Moments-Based Approach

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  • Christopher Barrett
  • Cissé Jennifer Denno

Abstract

Despite significant spending on ‘resilience’ by international development agencies, no theory-based method for estimating or measuring development resilience has yet been developed. This paper introduces an econometric strategy for estimating individual or household-level development resilience from panel data. Estimation of multiple conditional moments of a welfare function—itself specified to permit potentially nonlinear path dynamics— enables the computation and forecasting of individual-specific conditional probabilities of satisfying a normative minimum standard of living. We then develop a decomposable resilience measure that enables aggregation of the individualspecific estimates to targetable subpopulation- and population-level measures. We illustrate the method empirically using household panel data from pastoralist communities in northern Kenya. The results demonstrate not only the method and its potential for targeting resiliencebuilding interventions, but also help explain the behavioral paradox of apparent herd overstocking.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Barrett & Cissé Jennifer Denno, 2016. "Working Paper 236 - Estimating Development Resilience: A Conditional Moments-Based Approach," Working Paper Series 2340, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:2340
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    2. Knippenberg, Erwin & Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Constas, Mark A., 2017. "Measuring Resilience in Malawi," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258229, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Isaac Gershon Kodwo Ansah & Cornelis Gardebroek & Rico Ihle, 2019. "Resilience and household food security: a review of concepts, methodological approaches and empirical evidence," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1187-1203, December.
    4. Christophe Béné, 2020. "Resilience of local food systems and links to food security – A review of some important concepts in the context of COVID-19 and other shocks," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 805-822, August.
    5. Solomon Asfaw & Giuseppe Maggio & Alessandro Palma, 2018. "Climate Resilience Pathways of Rural Households. Evidence from Ethiopia," SPRU Working Paper Series 2018-18, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Knippenberg, Erwin & Hoddinott, John F., 2017. "Shocks, social protection, and resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Elena SERFILIPPI & Gayatri RAMNATH, 2018. "Resilience Measurement And Conceptual Frameworks: A Review Of The Literature," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(4), pages 645-664, December.
    8. Phadera, Lokendra & Michelson, Hope C. & Winter-Nelson, Alex E., 2017. "Do Asset Transfers Build Household Development Resilience?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258389, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Ayala Wineman & Nicole M. Mason & Justus Ochieng & Lilian Kirimi, 2017. "Weather extremes and household welfare in rural Kenya," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(2), pages 281-300, April.

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