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Trade Induced Technological Change: Did Chinese Competition Really Increase European Innovation?

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas L. Campbell

    (New Economic School)

  • Karsten Mau

    (Maastricht University)

Abstract

Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen (2016) find that Chinese competition induced a rise in patenting, IT adoption, and TFP by up to 30% of the total increase in Europe in the early 2000s. Yet average patents per firm fell by 94% for the most China-competing firms in their sample, but also by 94% for non-competing firms. Their findings for patents appear to be driven by the decision to normalize patents by adding one (i.e., patents+1). Since China-competing firms had fewer patents to begin with, adding one induces bias, making it appear as though patents declined by a smaller percentage in the China-competing sectors. When we estimate a negative binomial regression using patents as the dependent variable, correcting several coding errors, we find no (or even negative) correlation between Chinese competition and patent growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas L. Campbell & Karsten Mau, 2020. "Trade Induced Technological Change: Did Chinese Competition Really Increase European Innovation?," Working Papers w0262, New Economic School (NES).
    • Handle: RePEc:abo:neswpt:w0262
    as

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    File URL: https://www.nes.ru/files/Preprints-resh/WP262.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    3. Johan Hombert & Adrien Matray, 2018. "Can Innovation Help U.S. Manufacturing Firms Escape Import Competition from China?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(5), pages 2003-2039, October.
    4. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    5. Christophe BELLEGO & Louis-Daniel PAPE, 2019. "Dealing with the log of zero in regression models," Working Papers 2019-13, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Lorenz Kueng & Nicholas Li & Mu-Jeung Yang, 2016. "The Impact of Emerging Market Competition on Innovation and Business Strategy," NBER Working Papers 22840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    8. Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K., 2018. "Investment responses to trade liberalization: Evidence from U.S. industries and establishments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 203-222.
    9. Rui Xu & Kaiji Gong, 2017. "Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S," IMF Working Papers 2017/253, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Patents; China; Europe; Textiles; Trade Shocks; Manufacturing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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