IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/abn/wpaper/auwp2020-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Ying Lin
  • Henry Thompson

Abstract

A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit this claim of a shrinking exchange rate effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for US macroeconomic data under the current floating exchange rate regime. Our VAR approach nests the conventional single equation method and reveals statistically significant evidence of ERPT to the CPI only during later observations, sharply contrasting with previous findings. After confirming structural breaks in ERPT via statistical tests by Hansen (2001) and Qu and Perron (2007), we seek the source with disaggregated level CPIs, and pin down a key role of energy prices. US energy imports increased from the 1990s until the recent recession. This market changes magnify the effects of the exchange rate shocks on domestic energy prices, resulting in greater responses of the total CPI via the energy price channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyeongwoo Kim & Ying Lin & Henry Thompson, 2020. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2020-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2020/2020-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, March.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. Takhtamanova, Yelena F., 2010. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1118-1130, December.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    8. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    9. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    11. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hao Dong & Yingrong Zheng & Na Li, 2023. "Analysis of Systemic Risk Scenarios and Stabilization Effect of Monetary Policy under the COVID-19 Shock and Pharmaceutical Economic Recession," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hyeongwoo Kim & Ying Lin, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices and the Role of Energy Prices," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gonzalez Minguez, Jose M., 2006. "Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-145, January.
    3. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    5. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Shuwei, 2018. "Understanding Why Fiscal Stimulus Can Fail through the Lens of the Survey of Professional Forecasters," MPRA Paper 89326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," IHEID Working Papers 13-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. Javed Ahmad Bhat & Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Waseem Ahmad Parray, 2025. "Nonlinearity in exchange rate pass-through across BRICS: Role of business cycle and inflation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-32, February.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:20:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ganapati Mendali & Sanjukta Das, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 135-156, August.
    11. Chi Wei Su & Heng-Guo Zhang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Rui Nian, 2016. "Is exchange rate stability beneficial for stabilizing consumer prices in China?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 857-879, September.
    12. Jamel JOUINI & Karim BARHOUMI, 2008. "Revisiting the decline in the exchange rate pass-through: further evidence from developing countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(20), pages 1-10.
    13. Kromphardt, Jürgen & Logeay, Camille, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter & Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
    17. Janine Aron & Ronald Macdonald & John Muellbauer, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-143, January.
    18. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    19. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
    21. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Emerging floaters: Pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1580-1595, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Pass Through; Disaggregated CPI Inflation; Structural Break; Real Exchange Rate Shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2020-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hyeongwoo Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deaubus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.