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Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

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  • Bent Jesper Christensen
  • Thomas Elgaard Jensen
  • Rune Mølgaard

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power. The data source is a unique set of OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over the period July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist during this period, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market power in the spot market, indicating that misuse of market power in the forward market accompanied that which took place in the spot market, according to the regulator?s ruling. This is consistent with the hypothesis that Elsam used the forward market to disguise its spot market manipulation. The findings are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Jesper Christensen & Thomas Elgaard Jensen & Rune Mølgaard, 2007. "Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity," CREATES Research Papers 2007-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-30
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/07/rp07_30.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marckhoff, Jan & Wimschulte, Jens, 2009. "Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference: Evidence from the Nordic market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 257-268, March.
    2. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
    3. Jesús M. López-Lezama & David Tobón-Orozco & Esteban Velilla & Jorge Barrientos & Fernando Villada, 2018. "Long-term seasonal forwards in electricity generation markets: an application to Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 287-314, July.
    4. Jónsson, Tryggvi & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2010. "On the market impact of wind energy forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-320, March.
    5. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; forward prices; market power; OTC prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies

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