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A Modeling Framework for the Diffusion of Green Technologies

In: Management Of Technology Innovation And Value Creation Selected Papers from the 16th International Conference on Management of Technology

Author

Listed:
  • Mitsutaka Mutsumoto

    (Environmentally Conscious Design and Manufacturing Group, Advanced Manufacturing Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan)

  • Shinsuke Kondoh

    (Environmentally Conscious Design and Manufacturing Group, Advanced Manufacturing Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan)

  • Jun Fujimoto

    (University of Tokyo, Japan)

  • Keijiro Masui

    (Environmentally Conscious Design and Manufacturing Group, Advanced Manufacturing Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan)

Abstract

We propose a modeling framework based on multi-agent models for analyzing the effects of environmental measures that depend on environmental technological innovations. In the present paper, we first outline existing approaches and clarify our objective in formulating the proposed framework. Previous major approaches have been 1) economic rationalistic models and 2) logistic curve models. We augmented logistic curve models by applying multi-agent models and setting the parameters of technological advancement and parameters of consumer preferences in the multi-agent framework. In addition, as an example of application of the proposed framework, we estimate the diffusion of hybrid electric vehicles (HV) in Japan until 2030 and the corresponding effect on CO2 emission levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitsutaka Mutsumoto & Shinsuke Kondoh & Jun Fujimoto & Keijiro Masui, 2008. "A Modeling Framework for the Diffusion of Green Technologies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Mostafa Hashem Sherif & Tarek M Khalil (ed.), Management Of Technology Innovation And Value Creation Selected Papers from the 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, chapter 8, pages 121-136, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812790545_0008
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    Cited by:

    1. Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki, 2023. "Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.

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