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Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

In: Practical Fruits of Econophysics

Author

Listed:
  • Rafał Weron

    (Wrocław University of Technology)

  • Ingve Simonsen

    (NTNU)

Abstract

Summary We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafał Weron & Ingve Simonsen, 2006. "Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions," Springer Books, in: Hideki Takayasu (ed.), Practical Fruits of Econophysics, pages 215-219, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-4-431-28915-9_39
    DOI: 10.1007/4-431-28915-1_39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Enrico Scalas & Rudolf Gorenflo & Hugh Luckock & Francesco Mainardi & Maurizio Mantelli & Marco Raberto, 2004. "Anomalous waiting times in high-frequency financial data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 695-702.
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