On the Horizon: Asia Pacific Futures

So – what of the future? What will it become? Such questions are posed daily by billions of people worldwide and have led to a flood of reports, trend analyses, commentaries and predictions. Many of the reports and analyses are based on sound empirical methods and compelling research. These are usually statistical using advanced modelling and algorithmic techniques. Most, are based on identifying patterns and trends in past data which are projected as an indication of what the future will become commonly known as forecasting. Being creative lies at the heart of hope, future mindedness and aspirations for a ‘better’ future. This book has emphatically made the point that values, purpose, foresight and creativity are critical toward building enterprises of the future. The paradox of THE future is explored and its relation to leaders obsessed with avoiding risk is discussed. Risk aversion by businesses and by their leadership is usually the result of a deep seated fear of how the future is perceived or a deeper realisation that they do not have the abilities to effectively engage the future. In the end, they buckle to the short-term profit/gain incentives of shareholders and see this as their core function. Many focus almost exclusively on governance, compliance and monitoring financial performance while avoiding orforgetting their fiduciary responsibility to provide a clear vision and direction toward the longer term prosperity of the enterprise. The second paradox of THE future is that what has been predicted becomes expected. Decisions, organisational structure and significant investment is mobilised around patterns of the past, trends or statistical projections all geared to avoid risk and maintain market share. Yet, we are consistently reminded both by dependable sources and experience to expect the unexpected. This paradox leads to numerous consequences associated with closed systems. Products become less relevant even redundant, innovation is stifled, employees become fatigued, networks/markets shrink and the negative impact of change is exacerbated. In short, they fail to include in their scope of possibility, that change can be seditious and will seriously disrupt their enterprise because it falls outside of their understanding of what is probable. As illustrated in this book it is possible to envision ‘images’ of possible futures. This suggests a belief that individually and collaboratively humans have the ability to envisioning alternatives, preferred outcomes, acting to achieve them and being able to ‘create’ the future. Futures Studies is based on this premise and is one way of studying and actively engaging the future in a disciplined, collaborative and co-creative way. Human agency if often neglected and its powerful transformative capacity is even dismissed by some as inevitably succombing to superior artificial intellects. This, culminating at a point where humanity's dominion over the earth comes to an end (The Singularity). The book is respectful of the logic and arguments of the Singularity proposition. It acknowledges the notion that a massively driven technological transition is already visible but rejects the predictability of the Singularity proposition. The unpredictable impact of public human agency promoting social justice and providence in addition to the failure to deliver any meaningful futures evidence that captures the impact of converging mega trends independent of technology, undermines the predictability of 'The Singularity'. Human agency and its still unrealised potential largely informs the logic of this book. Futures studies, and for that matter foresight is only meaningful as both analytical and creative, a science and art. It uses both scientific methods and conceptual methods. It is collaborative and co-creative. And importantly it is based on human providence – the interests of humanity. The notions of exponential convergence, macro-historical trends and the appeal of past values re-emerging are explored as drivers of the future. The growing social inequality, increased poverty, diluted sovereignty/influence of nations, cyber security and democratisation of media and education are interwoven to provide an environmental context within which mega-trends converge. Mega trends are discussed in terms of how they might converge in creating unexpected futures.