Strategy in a World Where ‘Change has Changed’

Research strongly evidences that the majority of executives find that strategic thinking is their most significant work-related challenge and that in excess of 90 % of directors are not competent direction givers. Executives admit that they find strategic thinking an ‘agony’ while many subscribe to the evolutionary approach to strategy which discounts the value of strategy. Like it or not businesses now function in a world described by Stephen Hawking as “the age of complexity” and Ziauddin Sardar as “postnormal times”. Probable futures are contrasted to possible futures within the context of complex systems and operational environments. Strategy, again, is seen as necessary yet difficult for leaders to ‘get right’ in navigating this complexity. A view that is shared by leading researchers of strategy acknowledges that strategy was heavily influenced by predictive models based mostly on quantitative empirical research. Stemming from when the past was quite useful in predicting the future, strategy literature rapidly evolved into a litany of theories and frameworks that sought to understand strategy as a science and to assist practitioners in formulating successful strategy. Recent research reveals that when studying foresight in just under 500 Austrian industrial firms only 2.4 % have integrated foresight in their strategy development. This alarming, but evidenced situation is likely to be the case in most economies. Indeed Rohrbeck confirms that foresight activities that are not integrated into strategy systems are likely to have no impact on their host organizations. As such, there is an imperative to integrate foresight and strategic thinking as necessary antecedents of formulating strategic value. This is represented in the “strategy value chain” which suggests an end-to-end illustration of strategy. The findings of a research study titled “Foresight and strategic thinking of strategy-level leaders” are presented. A theoretical model based on structural equation modelling (SEM) multivariate analysis is illustrated suggesting the conceptual relationship between foresight and strategic thinking of strategy-level leaders in the way they formulate strategy.