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Estimative/Probabilistic Language: Part II—Expanding the Range of Scenario Options

In: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce Garvey

    (Strategy Foresight Limited)

  • Adam D. M. Svendsen

    (Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC/FHS))

Abstract

Following directly on from the previous chapter, Chap. 5 , titled: More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via ‘Estimative/Probabilistic Language’, this current chapter highlights several different estimative or probabilistic language phrases, which are tested together. This is done via conducting a Strategic Options Analysis (SOA)-related pair-wise analysis (PWA) exercise. Adopting the path introduced in Chap. 5 means that we can then ascertain which estimative/probabilistic language phrases are compatible or not—thereby offering some potential greater clarity in the communication of (un)certainty both to and for the benefit of end-users. The work undertaken here also demonstrates how ‘Estimative’ or ‘Probabilistic Language’ can perhaps be better deployed for decision-making purposes. At its very least, the work introduced here provides several further discussion points deserving of their further consideration as a guide relating to how estimative/probabilistic language conventions can potentially be further optimised in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Garvey & Adam D. M. Svendsen, 2024. "Estimative/Probabilistic Language: Part II—Expanding the Range of Scenario Options," Management for Professionals, in: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence, chapter 0, pages 87-105, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-66115-0_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0_6
    as

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