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The Role of the Scenario and Its Re-assessment

In: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce Garvey

    (Strategy Foresight Limited)

  • Adam D. M. Svendsen

    (Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC/FHS))

Abstract

This chapter further interrogates what scenarios are, as well as further parsing the role and value of engaging in scenario planning processes. Alongside detailing strengths and advantages, a number of observed current scenario planning process weaknesses and limitations are charted, notably the frequent adoption of 2×2 matrix approaches, which often generate merely 4 different scenarios overall. A major contention this chapter raises pivots around the key question of: Are detailed scenarios worth the effort, if reduced to just 4? It further asks: Is adopting that approach to scenarios an oversimplification and extended abstraction, which fails to adequately capture the complexities involved at their fullest and dynamically enough? Also a greater role for continuously updating data and intelligence input into overall scenario planning processes is equally advocated throughout, again underscoring the importance of Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) and its conduct for constantly upgrading responses and solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Garvey & Adam D. M. Svendsen, 2024. "The Role of the Scenario and Its Re-assessment," Management for Professionals, in: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence, chapter 0, pages 271-284, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-66115-0_13
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0_13
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