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Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Modelling: An Application to Crop Yield Variability

In: Agricultural Cooperative Management and Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Siyi Feng

    (Agri-Food & Biosciences Institute)

  • Julian Binfield

    (University of Missouri)

  • Myles Patton

    (Agri-Food & Biosciences Institute)

  • John Davis

    (Agri-Food & Biosciences Institute
    Queen’s University Belfast)

Abstract

Market volatility is of increasing concern within the agricultural sector of the EU and consequently the FAPRI-UK and EU-GOLD partial equilibrium modelling system is being developed to produce stochastic projections, which reflect underlying uncertainties. This chapter describes the underlying methodology. In the initial simulations, only one source of uncertainty, namely crop yield variability within the EU, is examined. Positive correlations among crop yield deviates amplify variations in crop production. This is supported by our results of the experimental simulations in which correlations among crop yield deviates are taken into account and compared to results where they are not addressed. Variability in output value varies widely depending on the aggregation level under consideration. In particular, at levels below where prices are determined, output value variability is larger than either production variability or price variability alone, supporting the potential need for risk management policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Siyi Feng & Julian Binfield & Myles Patton & John Davis, 2014. "Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Modelling: An Application to Crop Yield Variability," Cooperative Management, in: Constantin Zopounidis & Nikos Kalogeras & Konstadinos Mattas & Gert Dijk & George Baourakis (ed.), Agricultural Cooperative Management and Policy, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 41-61, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comchp:978-3-319-06635-6_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-06635-6_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Loughrey, Jason & Thorne, Fiona & Hennessy, Thia, 2015. "The Direct Impact of Risk Management Tools on Farm Income: The Case of Irelands Spring Barley Producers," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204228, Agricultural Economics Society.
    2. Jason Loughrey & Fiona Thorne & Thia Hennessy, 2016. "A Microsimulation Model for Risk in Irish Tillage Farming," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 41-76.

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