IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/adbchp/978-4-431-55797-5_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Which Side of the Economy Is Affected More by Oil Prices: Supply or Demand?

In: Monetary Policy and the Oil Market

Author

Listed:
  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

    (Keio University)

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

Abstract

This chapter develops a New Keynesian model to examine a theoretical global economy with two basic macroeconomic components: an energy producer and an energy consumer. (From now on in this chapter whenever we refer to the “energy” or “energy prices”, we refer to “crude oil” and “crude oil price”, which is the main source of energy.) This simple economy uses these two components to evaluate how oil prices affect the consumer economy’s gross domestic product and inflation from 1960 to 2011. This model assumes that changes in the oil price transfer to macro variables through either supply (aggregate supply curve) or demand channels (aggregate demand curve). In order to examine the effects of this transfer, an IS curve is used to look at the demand side and a Phillips curve is used to analyze inflationary effects from the supply side. The empirical analysis concludes that movements in the oil price mainly affect the economy through the demand side (shifting the aggregate demand curve) by affecting household expenditures and energy consumption. This analysis provides several additional findings, among which is that easy monetary policies amplify energy demand more than supply, resulting in skyrocketing crude oil prices, which inhibit economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2016. "Which Side of the Economy Is Affected More by Oil Prices: Supply or Demand?," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary (ed.), Monetary Policy and the Oil Market, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 29-53, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:adbchp:978-4-431-55797-5_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-55797-5_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Nour Tawk, 2017. "Decline of oil prices and the negative interest rate policy in Japan," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 233-250, April.
    2. Huang, Menghao & Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices," ADBI Working Papers 503, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.
    6. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Alekhina, Victoriia, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades," ADBI Working Papers 982, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Three Arrows of “Abenomics” and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy," ADBI Working Papers 492, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; New Keynesian model; IS curve; Phillips curve; Monetary policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:adbchp:978-4-431-55797-5_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.