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The Use of Scenarios in Business Planning

In: Unknowledge and Choice in Economics

Author

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  • Brian J. Loasby

Abstract

In an article under this title, Moyer (1984) reports on the prevalence of substantial errors in American forecasts of economic variables for periods of between five and twenty years ahead, and sees no evidence that the performance of forecasters is improving. Growing awareness of the fragility of our knowledge about the future has helped to provide a climate receptive to ideas about business planning which do not seek to base major decisions on a single best estimate of future events, whatever its sophistication — though there seems little sign that politicians are yet prepared to admit that they may not be able to command the future. This greater consciousness of uncertainty has led to increasing recognition of the value of Professor Shackle’s conception of decision-making, which has indeed been commended both by Drucker (1969), who has always emphasised the need for management to be aware of the possibility of unexpected change, and by Jefferson (1983) in his account of the developing management practice of Shell International.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian J. Loasby, 1990. "The Use of Scenarios in Business Planning," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Stephen F. Frowen (ed.), Unknowledge and Choice in Economics, chapter 4, pages 46-63, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-08097-7_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-08097-7_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey M. Hodgson, 2019. "The great crash of 2008 and the reform of economics," Chapters, in: Jonathan Michie (ed.), The Handbook of Globalisation, Third Edition, chapter 28, pages 439-456, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Mario Le Glatin & Pascal Le Masson & Benoit Weil, 2018. "Can organisational ambidexterity kill innovation? A case for non-expected utility decision making," Post-Print hal-01808566, HAL.
    3. Jonathan Michie (ed.), 2011. "The Handbook of Globalisation, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14082.
    4. Bianchi, Marina, 1995. "Markets and firms Transaction costs versus strategic innovation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 183-202, October.

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