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Generalized Theory of Uncertainty: Principal Concepts and Ideas

In: Fundamental Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lotfi A. Zadeh

Abstract

It is a deep-seated tradition in science to turn to probability theory when one is faced with a problem in which uncertainty plays a significant role. Underlying this tradition is the assumption that there is just one kind of uncertainty—probabilistic uncertainty. The generalized theory of uncertainty (GTU) challenges this assumption. The principal thesis of GTU is that there are many different kinds of uncertainty. Principally, there are two kinds: probabilistic uncertainty and possibilistic uncertainty. In addition, there are various combinations of these uncertainties, principally probabilistic/possibilistic uncertainty and possibilistic/probabilistic uncertainty. In relation to probabilistic/possibilistic uncertainty, a case in point is the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence. Basically, the Dempster–Shafer theory is a theory of random sets. A random set is a probability distribution of possibility distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lotfi A. Zadeh, 2011. "Generalized Theory of Uncertainty: Principal Concepts and Ideas," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Silva Marzetti Dall’Aste Brandolini & Roberto Scazzieri (ed.), Fundamental Uncertainty, chapter 6, pages 104-150, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30568-7_6
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230305687_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Yazdi, Amir Karbassi & Wanke, Peter Fernandes & Hanne, Thomas & Abdi, Farshid & Sarfaraz, Amir Homayoun, 2022. "Supplier selection in the oil & gas industry: A comprehensive approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Scazzieri, Roberto, 2014. "A structural theory of increasing returns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-88.

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