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Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development

In: Making Essential Choices with Scant Information

Author

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  • Bent Flyvbjerg

    (Aalborg University)

Abstract

Major projects generally have the following characteristics: Such projects are inherently risky, due to long planning horizons and complex interfaces. Technology and design are often not standard. Decision-making and planning are typically multi-player processes with conflicting interests. Often there is “lock in” with a certain project concept at an early stage, leaving alternatives analysis weak or absent. The project scope or ambition level will typically change significantly over time. Statistical evidence shows that such unplanned events are often unaccounted for, leaving budget and time contingencies sorely inadequate. As a consequence, misinformation about costs, benefits and risks is the norm. The result is cost overruns and/or benefit shortfalls with a majority of projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Flyvbjerg, 2009. "Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terry M. Williams & Knut Samset & Kjell J. Sunnevåg (ed.), Making Essential Choices with Scant Information, chapter 8, pages 147-168, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-23683-7_8
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230236837_8
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. Leurent, Martin & Jasserand, Frédéric & Locatelli, Giorgio & Palm, Jenny & Rämä, Miika & Trianni, Andrea, 2017. "Driving forces and obstacles to nuclear cogeneration in Europe: Lessons learnt from Finland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 138-150.
    2. EEA Wolf & Wouter Van Dooren, 2018. "‘Time to move on’ or ‘taking more time’? How disregarding multiple perspectives on time can increase policy-making conflict," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(2), pages 340-356, March.

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