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Survey Data on Expectations: What Have We Learnt?

In: Issues in Contemporary Economics

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  • G. S. Maddala

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Expectations play a major role in all economic activity. They are so ubiquitous in all economic modelling that it is not necessary to dwell on this issue at length. Early models of expectation were mostly extrapolative and the most popular model in the 1950s was the adaptive expectations model. Around 1960, Muth suggested that theories of expectation formation should be consistent with the economic model being considered and he said that, for lack of a better term, he would use the word ‘rational’ (Muth, 1961). In the 1970s, mainly with the impetus of Robert E. Lucas, Jr, the rational expectations model took off and now almost every paper published with the word ‘expectations’ in its title comes with a prefix ‘rational’.

Suggested Citation

  • G. S. Maddala, 1991. "Survey Data on Expectations: What Have We Learnt?," International Economic Association Series, in: Marc Nerlove (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Economics, chapter 12, pages 319-344, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:intecp:978-1-349-11576-1_12
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-11576-1_12
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    2. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    3. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    5. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
    6. Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2005. "Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?," The IUP Journal of Bank Management, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, November.
    7. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
    8. G. C. Lim & C. R. McKenzie, 1998. "Testing the rationality of expectations in the Australian foreign exchange market using survey data with missing observations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-190.

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