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Climate Policy Reform Options in 2025

In: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 6

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  • John Bistline
  • Kimberly A. Clausing
  • Neil Mehrotra
  • James H. Stock
  • Catherine Wolfram

Abstract

With the expiration of many tax cuts and unmet climate targets, 2025 could be a crucial year for climate policy in the United States. Using an integrated model of energy supply and demand, this paper aims to assess climate policies that the U.S. federal government may consider in 2025 and to evaluate emissions reductions, abatement costs, fiscal impacts, and household energy expenditures across a range of policy scenarios. The model results show several key findings. First, the emissions reductions of the Inflation Reduction Act are significantly augmented under scenarios that add a modest carbon fee or, to a lesser extent, that implement a clean electricity standard in the power sector. Second, net fiscal costs can be substantially reduced in scenarios that include a carbon fee, especially if fossil fuel exports are taxed. Third, expanding the IRA tax credits yields modest additional emissions reductions with higher fiscal costs. Finally, although none of the policy combinations across these scenarios achieve the U.S. target of a 50-52% economy-wide emissions reduction by 2030 from 2005 levels, the carbon fee and clean electricity standard scenarios achieve these levels between 2030 and 2035.
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Suggested Citation

  • John Bistline & Kimberly A. Clausing & Neil Mehrotra & James H. Stock & Catherine Wolfram, 2024. "Climate Policy Reform Options in 2025," NBER Chapters, in: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shanjun Li & Lang Tong & Jianwei Xing & Yiyi Zhou, 2017. "The Market for Electric Vehicles: Indirect Network Effects and Policy Design," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 89-133.
    2. Cassandra Cole & Michael Droste & Christopher Knittel & Shanjun Li & James H. Stock, 2023. "Policies for Electrifying the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet in the United States," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 316-322, May.
    3. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Hafstead, Marc A.C. & Kim, GyuRim & Long, Xianling, 2019. "Impacts of a carbon tax across US household income groups: What are the equity-efficiency trade-offs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 44-64.
    4. Chad P. Bown & Kimberly A. Clausing, 2023. "How trade cooperation by the United States, the European Union, and China can fight climate change," Working Paper Series WP23-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Jaffe, Adam B. & Newell, Richard G. & Stavins, Robert N., 2005. "A tale of two market failures: Technology and environmental policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 164-174, August.
    6. John Bistline & Geoffrey Blanford & Maxwell Brown & Dallas Burtraw & Maya Domeshek & Jamil Farbes & Allen Fawcett & Anne Hamilton & Jesse Jenkins & Ryan Jones & Ben King & Hannah Kolus & John Larsen &, 2023. "Emissions and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act," Papers 2307.01443, arXiv.org.
    7. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
    8. Maxwell L. Brown & Jon M. Becker & Jared Carbone & Teagan Goforth & James McFarland & Destenie Nock & Kristina Pitman & Daniel C. Steinberg, 2023. "Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector," NBER Working Papers 31621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2024. "US Presidential Election 2024: Consequences for Fiscal Policy," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 25(05), pages 13-17, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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