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Decomposing Medical Care Expenditure Growth

In: Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs

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  • Abe Dunn
  • Eli Liebman
  • Adam Hale Shapiro

Abstract

Medical-care expenditures have been rising rapidly, accounting for almost one-fifth of GDP in 2009. In this study, we assess the sources of the rising medical-care expenditures in the commercial sector. We employ a novel framework for decomposing expenditure growth into four components at the disease level: service price growth, service utilization growth, treated disease prevalence growth, and demographic shift. The decomposition shows that growth in prices and treated prevalence are the primary drivers of medical-care expenditure growth over the 2003 to 2007 period. There was no growth in service utilization at the aggregate level over this period. Price and utilization growth were especially large for the treatment of malignant neoplasms. For many conditions, treated prevalence has shifted towards preventive treatment and away from treatment for late-stage illnesses.
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Suggested Citation

  • Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2016. "Decomposing Medical Care Expenditure Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs, pages 81-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2016. "Decomposing Medical Care Expenditure Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs, pages 81-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aizcorbe, Ana & Nestoriak, Nicole, 2011. "Changing mix of medical care services: Stylized facts and implications for price indexes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 568-574, May.
    3. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2015. "Implications of Utilization Shifts on Medical‐care Price Measurement," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 539-557, May.
    4. Amitabh Chandra & Jonathan Skinner, 2012. "Technology Growth and Expenditure Growth in Health Care," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 645-680, September.
    5. Abe C. Dunn & Adam Shapiro & Eli Liebman, 2011. "Geographic Variation in Commercial Medical Care Expenditures: A Decomposition Between Price and Utilization," BEA Working Papers 0075, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    6. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "Developing a Framework for Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth: Exploring Issues of Representativeness," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress, pages 545-574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David M. Cutler & Mark McClellan & Joseph P. Newhouse & Dahlia Remler, 1998. "Are Medical Prices Declining? Evidence from Heart Attack Treatments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 991-1024.
    8. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Lindsey Rittmueller & Adam Shapiro, 2014. "Defining Disease Episodes and the Effects on the Components of Expenditure Growth," BEA Working Papers 0108, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    9. Dunn, Abe & Shapiro, Adam Hale & Liebman, Eli, 2013. "Geographic variation in commercial medical-care expenditures: A framework for decomposing price and utilization," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1153-1165.
    10. A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), 2000. "Handbook of Health Economics," Handbook of Health Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karine Lamiraud & Stéphane Lhuillery, 2015. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and Medical Costs," Working Papers hal-01218064, HAL.
    2. Kate Ho & Ariel Pakes & Mark Shepard, 2016. "The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010-12," NBER Working Papers 22835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2016. "Decomposing Medical Care Expenditure Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs, pages 81-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "Developing a Framework for Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth: Exploring Issues of Representativeness," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress, pages 545-574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2015. "Implications of Utilization Shifts on Medical‐care Price Measurement," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 539-557, May.
    6. Michael Stucki, 2021. "Factors related to the change in Swiss inpatient costs by disease: a 6-factor decomposition," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 195-221, March.
    7. Kalseth, Jorid & Halvorsen, Thomas & Kalseth, Birgitte & Sarheim Anthun, Kjartan & Peltola, Mikko & Kautiainen, Kirsi & Häkkinen, Unto & Medin, Emma & Lundgren, Jonatan & Rehnberg, Clas & Másdóttir, B, 2014. "Cross-country comparisons of health-care costs: The case of cancer treatment in the Nordic countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 172-179.
    8. Kate Ho & Ariel Pakes & Mark Shepard, 2018. "The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010–2012," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 53(1), pages 117-137, August.
    9. Karine Lamiraud & Stephane Lhuillery, 2016. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and Medical Costs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(9), pages 1123-1147, September.
    10. Ana Aizcorbe & Tina Highfill, 2015. "Medical Care Expenditure Indexes for the US, 1980-2006," BEA Working Papers 0121, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets

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