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Fiscal Sustainability in Japan

In: Fiscal Policy and Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Masaya Sakuragawa
  • Kaoru Hosono

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability of Japan by providing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that features the low interest rate of the government bond relative to the economic growth rate to mimic the actual data. We evaluate fiscal sustainability by investigating whether the expected path of the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes or increases without bound. The debt-to-GDP ratio depends crucially on the projected growth rate and the fiscal policy rule. If the government does not react to the current fiscal crisis, the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase without bound, and then the fiscal policy is not sustainable. If the fiscal rule uses Bohn’s (1998) idea that involves the response of the primary surplus to the debt, sustainability improves. This rule provides a useful and realistic reform plan in the short and long runs.
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Suggested Citation

  • Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Crisis, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12699
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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