Development of Mathematical Models to Explore the Potential of Wind Fleets to Decarbonize Electricity Grid Systems

Real-time records of energy generation in the UK and Germany have been used to develop models for each country's electricity generation system, the objective being to provide a means of determining the likely economic limits of wind fleets and their consequent ability to decarbonise their grids. The results from the models, expressed in the form of marginal efficiencies, have then been codified in a pair of simple look-up tables, obviating the need for further reference to the models and providing a simple means of assessing the implications for the grids and their wind fleets of a range of future grid configurations, including increases in wind and solar fleet capacities, anticipated future loss in both countries of nuclear-generating capacity, possible replacement of petrol and diesel passenger vehicles with electric vehicles, and, for the UK only, the conversion of domestic boilers from gas to electricity. It is apparent that headroom, being the difference between annual average grid demand and base generation, is the single most important factor in determining how much wind capacity may be economically deployed in decarbonising grids.