Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting
In: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Michael PFARRHOFER, 2024. "Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24224, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 18970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
References listed on IDEAS
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023.
"Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
- Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," CEPR Discussion Papers 17461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
- Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
- Gu, Shihao & Kelly, Bryan & Xiu, Dacheng, 2021. "Autoencoder asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 429-450.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Joshua C. C. Chan, 2024.
"BVARs and stochastic volatility,"
Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 3, pages 43-67,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2020.
"Bayesian Modelling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees,"
Working Papers
2308, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2023.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2022. "Bayesian Modeling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees," Papers 2209.11970, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
- Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
- Zikai Wei & Anyi Rao & Bo Dai & Dahua Lin, 2023. "HireVAE: An Online and Adaptive Factor Model Based on Hierarchical and Regime-Switch VAE," Papers 2306.02848, arXiv.org.
- Arnaud Dufays & Elysee Aristide Houndetoungan & Alain Coën, 2022.
"Selective Linear Segmentation for Detecting Relevant Parameter Changes [Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds],"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 762-805.
- Arnaud Dufays & Aristide Houndetoungan & Alain Coen, 2024. "Selective linear segmentation for detecting relevant parameter changes," Papers 2402.05329, arXiv.org.
- Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
- Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.
- Milan Kumar Das & Anindya Goswami, 2019. "Testing of binary regime switching models using squeeze duration analysis," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-20, March.
- Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020.
"Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
- Kai Carstensen & Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif & Maik H. Wolters, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 6457, CESifo.
- Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kai Carstensen & Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Jena Economics Research Papers 2019-006, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003.
"Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 118, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Working Papers 97002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 1997.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 48, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Apr 2001.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2001. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Working Papers (Old Series) 9905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016.
"Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data,"
Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
- Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2014. "Measuring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks and Outliers: Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2014-004, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2015. "Measuring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks and Outliers: Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Nemati, Mehdi & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2016. "Dynamics of Price Adjustment in Qualitatively Differentiated Markets in the U.S.: The Case of Organic and Conventional Apples," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229950, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
- Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008.
"On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility,"
Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
- Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1981108.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
- Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the Stability of Domestic Financial Market Linkages in the Presence of time-varying Volatility," Working Papers 0810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
- David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013.
"Fiscal policy in good and bad times,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
- Candelon, B. & Lieb, L.M., 2011. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Francesco Bianchi, 2013.
"Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
- Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Regime switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," MPRA Paper 24251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2010.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2010. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 10-39, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2009. "Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 12-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020.
"Speculation-Driven Business Cycles,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
865, Central Bank of Chile.
- Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-driven Business Cycles," Working Papers 161, Peruvian Economic Association.
- René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000.
"Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters,"
Working Papers
2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2001. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-01, CIRANO.
- GARCIA,René & LUGER, Richard & RENAULT, Éric, 2001. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Cahiers de recherche 2001-09, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Garcia, R. & Luger, R. & Renault, E., 2001. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Cahiers de recherche 2001-09, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
More about this item
Keywords
Economics and Finance; Research Methods;JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:22222_5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Darrel McCalla (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.e-elgar.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.